US Open Men’s Betting: Djokovic to overcome Youzhny challenge in four
Before the rain came down on the newly installed roof on Arthur Ashe Stadium Court on Thursday we’d landed two good winning wagers at [5.0] and [2.7] respectively.
We had a bit of luck in the first one when Andy Murray won the opening set against Marcel Granollers 6-4 after failing to serve it out at 5-3 and saving game points before breaking at the fourth attempt to land us a nice winner.
And Nicolas Mahut and Paul-Henri Mathieu didn’t play a tie break in a straight sets win for the former to secure the ‘no tie breaks’ wager in that all-French encounter.
Then after the break Grigor Dimitrov and Jeremy Chardy went way past the overs mark in their five setter for a clean sweep on the day.
Novak Djokovic is back in action today and it’s hard to see even a slightly injured Djokovic losing over five sets to a 34-year-old Mikhail Youzhny, but wrist injuries are not something that’s easy to recover from quickly.
The Russian has been playing well and he’s won at least a set in his last four matches when Djokovic was ranked either number one or two in the world, so we might have to take a chance on him today.
They haven’t met since the quarter finals here in New York in 2013 and that day Djokovic was a [1.05] chance, which is pretty much the same as today, and Youzhny took the third set of that one before being bagelled in the fourth.
Djokovic had a bye in round two and we’ll see at around 20:00 UK time tonight whether that helps or hinders him, but I’d suspect that the conditions on Ashe now with the new roof will be in the Serb’s favour.
It’s worth taking a bit of a chance on the 3-1 to the world number one here at [4.5], with his fitness yet to be fully proven and an opponent that will threaten for a while at least.
The obvious places to look for tie breaks today are the matches between John Isner and Kyle Edmund and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Kevin Anderson.
Edmund has played well so far this week, but he’s unproven to say the least against the big servers, and with Isner struggling a bit physically I’m not of a mind to have a bet in that one.
But Tsonga and Anderson in their seven sets against each other in the past have played five tie breaks; one 7-5 and a 6-4 in all competitions and with two big servers and weak returners facing each other tie breaks seem very likely.
So far this week Tsonga has held 91% of the time and Anderson 87.5% of the time, which tallies with their season marks of 90.8% and 84.7%, and perhaps shows that Anderson is slowly getting better after an injury plagued campaign.
Tsonga has had his injury problems this season again as well, but he says that he “feels great physically” at the moment and I suspect he’ll have just a bit too much for Anderson today.
The Frenchman has more strength mentally for me and perhaps that shows in the fact that he’s won all of the breakers they’ve played against each other and 7-6 to him in set one seems the logical wager at [4.5] here.
Elsewhere, I’m hoping that Gael Monfils can dispose of Nico Almagro without too many problems, while Marin Cilic looks a little bit short against Jack Sock given that he lost over five sets to the American not long ago in Davis Cup.
Back Djokovic to beat Youzhny 3-1 at [4.5]
Back Tsonga to win set one 7-6 at [4.5]